October 7, 2014
Test #2: Next Thursday, October 16
Think Graduate School week Undergraduate listserv: email Amber (avazquez@fsu.edu) to be added to the list.
Last time: Evidence for stronger hurricanes
Hurricane activity: Global, regional, frequency, clusters, size, rainfall, what about wind shear?
Today: (1) Climate models. What can they say about future hurricanes? (2) Digging up the past. What can geology tell us about future hurricanes?
a. jet stream becoming stronger
b. Coriolis force becoming weaker
c. greater warming near the poles than across middle latitudes
d. none of the above
e. all of the above
Write your answer and your full name on the post-it note.
Counting hurricane-induced sand layers in sediment cores taken near the coast, scientists can get an estimate of the frequency of extreme hurricanes in the past. But what are the intensities of these prehistorical hurricanes?
Modern analogues, statistical model, grainsize distribution.
library(dplyr)
L = "http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/data/TLH_TC.txt"
df = read.table(L, header = TRUE)
df[1:4, c(5:9, 16:18)]
Yr Mo Da hr Wmax dis lon lat
1 1851 8 20 21 65.27 983.5 -80.93 22.26
2 1851 8 20 22 63.36 965.2 -81.08 22.38
3 1851 8 20 23 61.54 947.6 -81.24 22.49
4 1851 8 21 0 60.00 930.5 -81.40 22.60
library(ggplot2)
df %>%
filter(WmaxS >= 34, SYear >= 1967) %>%
group_by(SYear, Sid) %>%
summarize(RMI = max(WmaxS)) %>%
ggplot(., aes(x = SYear, y = RMI * .447)) +
geom_point() +
geom_quantile(quantiles = c(.5, .75, .95)) +
theme_bw() +
xlab("Year") + ylab("Regional Highest Intensity (m/s)")